Start with what the numbers say
Most of the anxiety in this conversation comes from a picture of college that is about twenty years out of date. Here is the current one.
| Figure | What it is | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 62.8% | High school graduates of 2024 who were in college that October | BLS, April 2025 |
| 61.1% | Students who finish a degree within six years of starting | National Student Clearinghouse, December 2025 |
| $29,560 | Average debt of a 2023-24 bachelor's graduate who borrowed | College Board, November 2025 |
| $30,990 | Average yearly cost of a public four-year college, in state, all in | College Board, November 2025 |
| 42% | Recent graduates aged 22 to 27 working in jobs that do not need their degree | New York Fed, 2026 Q2 |
| 38% | Americans with a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in higher education, down from 57% in 2015 | Gallup, July 2026 |
Read those together. Roughly four in ten people who start college do not finish. Four in ten who do finish are working in jobs that did not need the degree.
That is not an argument against college. It is an argument against calling it the safe choice by default. The safe choice is the one with a plan behind it.
We run a flight school, and many of the families we talk to are having exactly this conversation, so flying is the example on this page. The questions work for any path. If your teenager is choosing between a program like ours and a degree, flight school vs college puts the two side by side.
The case for college anyway
You should hear this side too, because your teenager will not make it.
- Most good jobs still go to graduates. Georgetown's Center on Education and the Workforce projects that of the good jobs in 2031, about two thirds will go to people on the bachelor's pathway. The non-degree share is real but smaller, about a third, split between people with a credential or associate degree and people with a high school diploma alone.
- Some careers simply require it. Medicine, law, engineering, teaching, most of corporate management. If the career they want is on that list, the conversation is about how to pay for college, not whether.
- Seventeen is early to close a door. A no at seventeen is often a not now. The degree stays available. The question is what to do with the years in between so they are not wasted.
Where this side falls down is when it is used as a reason to send a kid who does not want to be there. An unfinished degree is the worst outcome on this page: the debt without the credential.
What "no" usually means
Before you answer, find out which of these you are dealing with. They lead to different places.
- Not now. They are burned out on school and want a break. The risk is a break with no structure, which turns into a job at a warehouse and a car payment. A year with a plan is fine. A year without one is how people get stuck.
- Not that. They have a specific thing they want to do instead: a trade, a license, the military, a business. This is the best version. Your job is to pressure-test the plan, not to argue them out of it.
- Not four more years in a classroom. They can learn, they just hate lectures. Many licensed careers are mostly hands-on with a smaller written component. Flight training is one: most of a pilot's training happens in the airplane.
- They cannot see what it is for. They have no career in mind and college feels like paying a lot to delay the question. Fair. The answer here is exposure, not enrolment: a trial day, a discovery flight, a shift shadowing someone, a conversation with three people who do the work.
How to judge a path that is not college
Hold any alternative to the same standard you would hold a degree to. Five questions.
- Is there a credential at the end that an employer recognizes? A state license, a federal certificate, a union card, an industry certification. A pilot leaves training with FAA certificates that every airline in the country hires against. A "certificate of completion" from the school itself is not the same thing.
- How long until the first paycheck from the work itself? Not until graduation, until they are being paid to do the job. For a career pilot that is about nine months to the instructor certificate, after which they are paid to teach while they build hours.
- What does it pay in year one, year five and year fifteen? Trades and licensed careers often start higher than a graduate job and some plateau sooner. Some do not. Our pilot salary guide shows the whole curve, instructor to captain, and careers that pay six figures without a bachelor's degree lists the others.
- Who actually hires the graduates, and what did last year's class do? A school that cannot answer this by name is guessing.
- What does it cost, all in, and what happens if they quit halfway? Get the total in writing: tuition, exam fees, equipment, housing. Then get the refund policy. Then ask what the drop-out rate is.
If a path passes all five it is not a lesser choice than college. It is a different one.
Questions to ask any school
Take these to the visit. Write the answers down.
- How many students started last year and how many finished?
- Where are last year's graduates working now? Can we speak to two of them?
- What is the total cost including every fee, exam and piece of equipment?
- How is the training paced? How many hours a week, over how many months, and what delays it?
- Who are the instructors, how long have they been here, and what happens if ours leaves?
- What is the refund policy if my kid stops at month three?
- What does the school get paid for, and when? A school paid in full up front has less reason to get a student to the finish line.
For flight schools specifically, add: how many airplanes for how many students, how far out are checkrides booked, and does the price include every certificate or just the first one. How long it takes to become a pilot explains why the pacing question matters more than any other.
The money conversation
A career program can cost as much as a degree. Ours is $89,000 for nine months, which is in the range of four years at a public university once you add housing. The difference is what it buys: a licensed profession with a defined ladder, starting about three years sooner.
Three things make this conversation go better.
- Separate the three asks. Paying for it, lending the money, and co-signing a loan are different things with different risks to you. Decide which you are open to before your teenager asks. If co-signing comes up, what a co-borrower actually commits to explains it in plain terms.
- Do the payback math together. Total cost, divided by what the job pays after training, gives a rough number of years to pay it back. For a pilot it is a few years of instructor pay followed by a regional airline salary. Have your teenager do this sum themselves. If they cannot, they are not ready to borrow for it.
- Know where cheap money is. Federal student loans do not apply to most career programs outside a college. Scholarships, a home equity loan at the family's rate rather than a 19-year-old's, and credit unions usually beat a specialist lender. How to pay for a career program federal aid does not cover ranks the options.
If you still disagree
You do not have to settle it this week. Three ways to buy time without losing it.
- Make the trial cheap and real. Before anyone signs anything, they should spend a day doing the actual work. For flying that is a one-hour discovery flight where they fly the airplane. For a trade it is a day on a site. The point is for them to find out, not for you to.
- Put a deadline on the decision. Agree a date, three or six months out, by which there is either an enrolment, a job with a plan, or a college application. Open-ended breaks are where the trouble is.
- Talk to the people who run the program, as a parent. Any school worth considering will take questions from you directly. We hold a Saturday session for parents of students considering a flying career, and you can book a one on one call with us without your teenager present.
A kid who has chosen something and done the work to understand it is in a better place than one who went to college because it was Tuesday. Your job in this conversation is to make sure the choosing is real.
Questions
Is it a mistake to skip college?
Not by itself. About four in ten people who start a degree do not finish within six years, and 42% of recent graduates are in jobs that do not need one. Skipping college is a mistake when nothing replaces it. A licensed career, a trade with an apprenticeship or a program with a recognized credential at the end is a plan, and should be judged on its completion rate, its cost and what graduates are paid.
What should I ask a trade school or flight school?
How many students finish, where last year's graduates work, the total cost including every fee, the pacing, who the instructors are and the refund policy. For a flight school add the number of airplanes per student and how far out checkrides are booked.
Can my teenager become a pilot without a degree?
Yes. The FAA does not require a degree for any pilot certificate, and Delta, the last major US passenger airline to require one, made it preferred rather than required in 2022. The path is private, instrument and commercial certificates, then an instructor rating to build hours toward the airlines. Our do you need a degree to be a pilot guide covers it.
Should I pay for it?
That is your decision, and it is three decisions: pay, lend, or co-sign. Decide which you are open to before the ask comes. Whatever you choose, have your teenager do the payback math themselves first.
What if they just want a year off?
A year with structure is fine and common. A year without one is the risk. Agree on a date by which there is a job with a plan, an enrolment or an application, and make the year cheap to try things in.
Sources
- BLS, College Enrollment and Work Activity of Recent High School and College Graduates, April 22 2025
- National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Yearly Progress and Completion, December 2025
- College Board, Trends in Student Aid Highlights, 2025
- College Board, Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2025 press release, November 6 2025
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, 2026 Q2
- Gallup, Confidence in U.S. Higher Education Slips Back Slightly, July 13 2026
- Pew Research Center, Is College Worth It?, May 23 2024
- Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031, press release, July 30 2024
- National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Final Spring Enrollment Trends, June 2026
Last reviewed October 2026. Enrollment, debt and confidence figures are updated yearly by their publishers, so check the source before you make a decision on one of these numbers.

